Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Beltranned! ?


Alright. I've been stuck on another post that I just can't fight my way through so it's time for a hearty baseball one. For those not able to participate in the sheer enjoyment of RBI's and OBP%, the attachment features a nice article, although with some sadness.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2011/09/06/MNK01L0AV2.DTL


Take heart Giant fans. While still mathematically possible and Arizona's pitching ultimately questionable, it does not seem that Giants are going to roll into the playoffs in 2011. Consider that half the teams that have gotten in the World Series have not made the playoffs the following year. Plus few teams lose players that the Giants have lost this year to injury. In time and reflection, I'm going to appreciate the fact that some people are not replaceable; this isn't a machine that the corporation can just replace with another model.

Last year the Giants became Buster Posey's team and without him- somehow with mirrors, magic, and willpower the team did pretty well. For a deceptive, hopeful time. If the Giants had collapsed when Posey went down, no one in SF would have been disappointed as we are now. Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain are big parts of the team but they are pitchers and impact of a pitcher is not the same as an everyday player (although Wilson comes pretty close). Freddie Sanchez was by far the best hitter the team had with runners in scoring position and without him, what is the Giants most glaring weakness?

Next to hitting- at least hitting in crucial situations, this year's team has also suffered defensively, nearly 35 % more fielding errors this year. And this does not even speak to the limited range of the defensive unit we've had on the field this year. While the eventual replacement of Freddie Sanchez with a very able and successful hitting Jeff Keppinger has seemed to be an equal trade off, fans forget that Freddie Sanchez won a battle title with the Pirates. Also, having just watched game #4 of the World Series where Sanchez made 4 excellent defensive plays- Keppinger may not have made any of them and the score 4-0 Giants might have been 5-4 Texas.

I remember after last year's World Series and Parade, I said that this year I would happily give manager Bochte and GM Sabean a pass for anything that happened- so I will. I admit this after much aggravation, radio tossing, and growling in the month of August. I just needed to back off a bit and appreciate what we've shared and been able to witness. Humility comes quick in baseball.

Think about it Giant fans-if there was no World Series win last year, if you were getting late in your life, ill of health you might consider trading in a year of bed wetting for one World Series championship. Well, it did happen- so look forward to your year in diapers!

And of the knuckleheads that lament the Giants not getting any top tier free agents for this year- the few signings more as rewards for Cody Ross and Aubrey Huff. It is of note that last year Ross was not penned in as the starter for the team until the playoffs- the Giants had been leaning toward playing Jose Guillen before his trouble with MLB. Before the playoffs, Ross had 7 RBI's in about 80 plus at bats, which is fairly equal to the production he's provided this year as a starter. Cody may be one of the great playoff players ever but it's a long season to endure, to possibly get there.

Free Agents: the Giants could have signed Vernon Wells as the California
Angels did for an astounding $26.5 million dollars/one year equal to the same poor stats that Aubrey Huff has delivered. If Jayson Werth said that he really wanted to play for the Giants for a bit less money, the Giants might have jumped at the chance- and the fans too ($126 million/7 years-Nationals) for his 52RBI .231Avg season. How about Adam LaRouche (a bargain at $7 million-Nationals) but only lasting 151 at bats before hitting .172 with 15 RBI. Or Adam Dunn- the last eight years with at least 38 home runs each year - seemingly guaranteed stats until this year hitting .162, 11 Hr, 48 RBI ($12 million/White Sox) , Alex Rios ($12 million White Sox) .220 BA, 8 Hr, 34 RBI. We could have had those guys if our GM really tried.

Minor League Sensations: Statistics are deceptive in the minors. Consider that in the major leagues, you have 80-90% of pitchers that should be in the big game (some are bodies filling up roster spots, some are underachievers or past their time) but the minors have probably 90% of pitchers that never will make the major leagues. And this is why guys such as Todd Linden, Cody Ransom and John Bowker can put up massive numbers in AAA ball. (Bowker by the way just lucked into getting a gig with the Phillies). In the big show, all their weaknesses will be exploited and if adjustments can not be made, just another footnote of great unanswered promise.

The team misses Juan Uribe's production, clutch hitting (he often would get those RBI's in poor hitting, low scoring games that this year's team no longer seems to be able to provide) and perhaps lucky charm and key pinch hitter Travis Ishikawa (who hasn't played at all with the big club this year). At one point in early August, Uribe (Doders) Renteria (Reds), and Miguel Tejada (Giants) all had 26 RBI's, although Tejada had about 100 more at bats. Tejada, great teammate he might be was terrible- production wise, all year.

Our home grown strengths- pitching is still our strength. Provided Wilson's arm is okay and we can determine who our fifth starter will be has next year in good shape. Hitting needs improvement obviously but should be (barring injuries of course) better (at least we know where we need help)- Posey, catcher. Huff, Belt, Pill (1B/OF). Sanchez, 2b (probably can't afford Keppinger as back up- nor would he want to be a back up), Shortstop- Crawford? great defense makes a big difference so I'd lean toward him. Sandoval/Panda at third (please learn to swing at fewer bad pitches and despite the success this year, drive in more runs. Late inning solo shots are impressive but often with leads and no base runners, pitchers will challenge more. Outfield- one of the 1b rotation guys? Nate Schierholtz (a starter or a really good fourth outfielder?), definitely the need for a lead off hitter with Torres as back up. If the Giants believe that he can hold up for two years, then sign Carlos Beltran.

If he likes playing here perhaps Beltran might sign for a bit less somewhere else. Rockies? If he can stay healthy is the biggest concern. With Posey and Sanchez in the line up, and an even more improved Panda- plus a genuine lead off hitter, it can be a strong line up. Fans get into Beltans' slow start with the team but it's a difficult thing to come over as the #1 guy; much better to be a very good third guy as Hunter Pence benefited with the Phillies. With Beltran, guys who were somehow squeezing out needed runs relaxed, relieved that their overachievement could end; the alchemy was altered. And Beltran did not have a Jose Reyes on base as he did with the Mets. An ace pitcher can be acquired late in the season, his teammates know that they can only depend on him every fifth day- and that they still will need to hold the line for the other four. Be

Much is made of Beltran's taking a called third strike with Mets vs. the Cardinals in a playoff game that would lead to going to the World Series for the Cardinals- but it was a great pitch. Beltran got them as far as they went. Last year, Wilson got Ryan Howard looking on a great pitch (great pitches are usually borderline calls) and Nelson Cruz swinging to end the NLCS and World Series but that did not/ must not diminish the contributions that Howard and Cruz put forth for their teams. Beltran's bat, pitch selection (usually), his willingness and ability to hit to all fields and even his slide last night to go around the tag at home- impressive.

Talking heads said at the beginning of the year that the Giants had not done much to improve their team and because of injuries, they are proven correct. Next year, not only does the team have a better grasp of what needs improvement (no more of "we hope Zito can be a strong starter"), finding a proven lead off hitter younger than 50, and a hitter just like the one we already have- even if for now he's just a Netflix rental.

Beltranned!!




























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